{"lizenz":{"name":"Open Database License (ODbL)","url":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/"},"hinweis":"Abgeleitete Datenbank: Enthält Informationen aus der Datenbank von dawum.de, die unter der Open Database License (ODbL) verfügbar ist. Diese Datei steht ebenfalls unter der ODbL.","quelle":{"name":"dawum.de","url":"https://dawum.de/","api":"https://api.dawum.de/","lizenz":"https://opendatacommons.org/licenses/odbl/1-0/","stand":"2026-09-29T16:45:36+02:00"},"methodik":"https://wahllage.de/methodik","methodikVersion":2,"stand":"2026-09-30","url":"https://wahllage.de/stand/bundestag/2026-09-30","parlament":{"slug":"bundestag","name":"Deutscher Bundestag","sitze":630,"mehrheitAb":316},"art":"durchschnitt","umfragen":20,"fensterTage":30,"vergleich":"30 Tage vorher","einheiten":{"wert":"Prozent","sd":"Prozentpunkte (Standardabweichung)","band95":"Prozent (±1,96·sd)","chancen":"Anteil der Simulationen (0–1)"},"kopfAnKopf":null,"parteien":[{"key":"afd","name":"AfD","wert":28.1,"sd":0.5,"band95":[27.12,29.08],"sitze":202,"einzugschance":1,"veraenderung":0.15,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"union","name":"CDU/CSU","wert":20,"sd":0.44,"band95":[19.14,20.86],"sitze":144,"einzugschance":1,"veraenderung":-0.74,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"gruene","name":"Grüne","wert":14.8,"sd":0.39,"band95":[14.04,15.56],"sitze":107,"einzugschance":1,"veraenderung":0.2,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"spd","name":"SPD","wert":13.19,"sd":0.38,"band95":[12.45,13.93],"sitze":95,"einzugschance":1,"veraenderung":0.59,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"linke","name":"Linke","wert":11.32,"sd":0.35,"band95":[10.63,12.01],"sitze":82,"einzugschance":1,"veraenderung":-0.34,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"fdp","name":"FDP","wert":4.25,"sd":0.22,"band95":[3.82,4.68],"sitze":0,"einzugschance":0,"veraenderung":-0.31,"echteBewegung":false},{"key":"bsw","name":"BSW","wert":3.45,"sd":0.21,"band95":[3.04,3.86],"sitze":0,"einzugschance":0,"veraenderung":0.74,"echteBewegung":true},{"key":"sonst","name":"Sonstige","wert":4.89,"sd":0.24,"band95":[4.42,5.36],"sitze":0,"einzugschance":null,"veraenderung":-0.3,"echteBewegung":false}],"mehrheiten":[{"parteien":["union","afd"],"chance":1,"sitze":346},{"parteien":["spd","gruene","afd"],"chance":1,"sitze":404},{"parteien":["linke","gruene","afd"],"chance":1,"sitze":391},{"parteien":["linke","spd","afd"],"chance":1,"sitze":379},{"parteien":["spd","gruene","union"],"chance":1,"sitze":346},{"parteien":["linke","gruene","union"],"chance":1,"sitze":333},{"parteien":["linke","spd","union"],"chance":0.95,"sitze":321}],"simulationen":2000,"hauseffekte":[{"institut":"INSA","umfragen":102,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.12,"bsw":0.28,"spd":0.16,"gruene":-0.8,"fdp":-0.15,"union":-0.49,"afd":0.82}},{"institut":"Forsa","umfragen":50,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":0.47,"bsw":-0.3,"spd":-0.79,"gruene":0.92,"fdp":-0.26,"union":-0.45,"afd":-0.2}},{"institut":"Forschungsgruppe Wahlen","umfragen":18,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":0.15,"spd":-0.22,"gruene":-0.13,"fdp":-0.64,"union":0.98,"afd":-0.16}},{"institut":"Verian (Emnid)","umfragen":13,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":0.03,"bsw":-0.28,"spd":0.32,"gruene":0.53,"fdp":-0.25,"union":-0.05,"afd":-0.54}},{"institut":"Allensbach","umfragen":12,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.56,"bsw":-0.05,"spd":0.36,"gruene":-0.47,"fdp":0.51,"union":1.37,"afd":-0.56}},{"institut":"YouGov","umfragen":12,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.18,"bsw":0.3,"spd":-0.01,"gruene":-0.04,"fdp":0.29,"union":-0.51,"afd":0.36}},{"institut":"Infratest dimap","umfragen":12,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.39,"bsw":-0.11,"spd":-0.46,"gruene":0.31,"fdp":-0.32,"union":0.72,"afd":-0.28}},{"institut":"Ipsos","umfragen":12,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":0.85,"bsw":0,"spd":0.18,"gruene":0.43,"fdp":0.38,"union":-0.97,"afd":-0.01}},{"institut":"pollytix","umfragen":6,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.1,"bsw":0.5,"spd":0.91,"gruene":-0.72,"fdp":0.49,"union":-0.43,"afd":0.07}},{"institut":"GMS","umfragen":6,"effektProzentpunkte":{"linke":-0.16,"bsw":-0.33,"spd":-0.45,"gruene":-0.04,"fdp":-0.05,"union":-0.17,"afd":0.5}}],"umfragenImFenster":[{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-29","feldBeginn":"2026-09-25","feldEnde":"2026-09-28","befragte":2001,"werte":{"linke":10,"bsw":3.5,"spd":14.5,"gruene":14.5,"fdp":4,"union":19,"afd":29.5,"sonst":5}},{"institut":"Forsa","auftraggeber":"RTL / n-tv","methode":"Telefon","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-29","feldBeginn":"2026-09-22","feldEnde":"2026-09-28","befragte":2501,"werte":{"linke":12,"bsw":3,"spd":14,"gruene":16,"fdp":4,"union":19,"afd":26,"sonst":6}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD am Sonntag","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-26","feldBeginn":"2026-09-21","feldEnde":"2026-09-25","befragte":1203,"werte":{"linke":10,"bsw":3,"spd":14,"gruene":15,"fdp":4,"union":19,"afd":29,"sonst":6}},{"institut":"Verian (Emnid)","auftraggeber":"FOCUS","methode":"Telefon","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-25","feldBeginn":"2026-09-16","feldEnde":"2026-09-22","befragte":1464,"werte":{"linke":12,"bsw":3,"spd":14,"gruene":15,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":28,"sonst":4}},{"institut":"Forschungsgruppe Wahlen","auftraggeber":"ZDF-Politbarometer","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-25","feldBeginn":"2026-09-22","feldEnde":"2026-09-24","befragte":1346,"werte":{"linke":12,"spd":13,"gruene":14,"fdp":3,"union":21,"afd":28,"sonst":9}},{"institut":"Allensbach","auftraggeber":"Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung","methode":"persönlich","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-24","feldBeginn":"2026-09-04","feldEnde":"2026-09-16","befragte":1051,"werte":{"linke":10,"spd":13,"gruene":14,"fdp":5,"union":23,"afd":28,"sonst":7}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-22","feldBeginn":"2026-09-18","feldEnde":"2026-09-21","befragte":2004,"werte":{"linke":10.5,"bsw":3.5,"spd":13.5,"gruene":13.5,"fdp":4.5,"union":19.5,"afd":29.5,"sonst":5.5}},{"institut":"Forsa","auftraggeber":"RTL / n-tv","methode":"Telefon","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-22","feldBeginn":"2026-09-15","feldEnde":"2026-09-21","befragte":2504,"werte":{"linke":12,"bsw":3,"spd":12,"gruene":17,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":27,"sonst":5}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD am Sonntag","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-20","feldBeginn":"2026-09-14","feldEnde":"2026-09-18","befragte":1202,"werte":{"linke":11,"bsw":3,"spd":13,"gruene":14,"fdp":5,"union":20,"afd":29,"sonst":5}},{"institut":"pollytix","auftraggeber":"Campact","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-16","feldBeginn":"2026-09-14","feldEnde":"2026-09-16","befragte":3113,"werte":{"linke":12,"bsw":5,"spd":14,"gruene":14,"fdp":5,"union":19,"afd":27,"sonst":4}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-15","feldBeginn":"2026-09-11","feldEnde":"2026-09-14","befragte":2006,"werte":{"linke":10.5,"bsw":3.5,"spd":12.5,"gruene":14,"fdp":4.5,"union":19.5,"afd":29,"sonst":6.5}},{"institut":"Forsa","auftraggeber":"RTL / n-tv","methode":"Telefon","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-15","feldBeginn":"2026-09-08","feldEnde":"2026-09-14","befragte":2502,"werte":{"linke":12,"bsw":3,"spd":12,"gruene":18,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":27,"sonst":4}},{"institut":"YouGov","auftraggeber":"YouGov","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-15","feldBeginn":"2026-09-11","feldEnde":"2026-09-14","befragte":1787,"werte":{"linke":10,"bsw":4,"spd":13,"gruene":16,"fdp":5,"union":18,"afd":29,"sonst":5}},{"institut":"GMS","auftraggeber":"GMS","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-14","feldBeginn":"2026-09-09","feldEnde":"2026-09-14","befragte":1009,"werte":{"linke":11,"bsw":3,"spd":11,"gruene":14,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":30,"sonst":7}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD am Sonntag","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-12","feldBeginn":"2026-09-07","feldEnde":"2026-09-11","befragte":1203,"werte":{"linke":10,"bsw":3,"spd":13,"gruene":14,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":29,"sonst":7}},{"institut":"pollytix","auftraggeber":"pollytix","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-08","feldBeginn":"2026-08-27","feldEnde":"2026-09-03","befragte":3023,"werte":{"linke":11,"bsw":4,"spd":14,"gruene":13,"fdp":5,"union":20,"afd":29,"sonst":4}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD","methode":"Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-08","feldBeginn":"2026-09-04","feldEnde":"2026-09-07","befragte":2010,"werte":{"linke":10.5,"bsw":4,"spd":12.5,"gruene":13.5,"fdp":4.5,"union":19.5,"afd":29,"sonst":6.5}},{"institut":"Forsa","auftraggeber":"RTL / n-tv","methode":"Telefon","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-08","feldBeginn":"2026-09-01","feldEnde":"2026-09-07","befragte":2502,"werte":{"linke":11,"bsw":3,"spd":12,"gruene":16,"fdp":4,"union":21,"afd":28,"sonst":5}},{"institut":"INSA","auftraggeber":"BILD am Sonntag","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-05","feldBeginn":"2026-08-31","feldEnde":"2026-09-04","befragte":1206,"werte":{"linke":10,"bsw":4,"spd":13,"gruene":13,"fdp":4,"union":20,"afd":28,"sonst":8}},{"institut":"Infratest dimap","auftraggeber":"ARD-Tagesthemen","methode":"Telefon + Online","veroeffentlicht":"2026-09-03","feldBeginn":"2026-08-31","feldEnde":"2026-09-02","befragte":1319,"werte":{"linke":12,"spd":13,"gruene":15,"fdp":4,"union":21,"afd":27,"sonst":8}}]}